Unveiling the Metabolic Health Revolution: Strategic Insights for Executives

At a glance

• Nearly 900 million adults around the world are living with obesity, which is a substantial risk factor for at least 20 diseases or conditions that include diabetes, cardiovascular conditions, and brain health disorders. The McKinsey Health Institute (MHI) estimates that obesity will be linked to $2.76 trillion in lost gross domestic product in 2050 due to its effects on labor force participation and productivity.
• The rise of GLP-1s is shifting the discussion of obesity from an intractable issue to a treatable medical condition—a change that is inspiring investment and innovation across industries, including healthcare, medtech, food, and retail.
• Society has two possible paths forward. It can react to obesity by emphasizing medical treatment and weight management drugs, or it can also pursue a broader vision that prioritizes prevention, societal shifts, and metabolic health for all. MHI estimates that the health impact of taking the latter path can be three to four times that of the first path and could lead to a $5.65 trillion annual GDP uplift in 2050 (3 percent of total GDP).
• Achieving metabolic health for all requires five major shifts: (1) advancing scientific understanding of metabolic health, (2) improving transparency through better measurement and tracking, (3) using technology for personalized interventions, (4) aligning economic incentives to make metabolic health more investable, thereby making healthy choices easier and more affordable, and (5) driving societal change through education and community engagement.
• As a first step, MHI proposes that metabolic health be elevated in priority to emphasize preventing chronic disease before it takes hold, enabling better health for all and advancing economies.

Widespread obesity has become a significant public health issue over the past 50 years, with nearly 900 million adults today living with obesity around the world. Obesity increases the risk of diseases like type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancers, dementia, and depression. Its root causes are complex and interconnected—including sedentary lifestyles, high-calorie diets, genetics, socioeconomic conditions, and environmental influences. The health and economic impacts of obesity are significant. Six and a half billion years of life will likely be lost globally due to premature deaths caused by obesity’s health effects. The annual obesity-attributable disease burden is 132 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), comparable to the burden of all chronic respiratory diseases. Economically, it could be linked to $2.76 trillion in lost GDP each year in 2050.

New weight management drugs, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists, offer new opportunities but also many uncertainties. While data has shown that these medications can be effective at helping individuals lose weight, questions remain about the long-term sustainability, broader benefits, side effects, and behavioral changes associated with these drugs.

This report first explores the issue of obesity, including its prevalence, causes, and health and economic impacts, as well as the emerging role of new weight management drugs. “Section 2: Impact of GLP-1s on all sectors” provides an analysis of the potential impacts of new weight management drugs on different industries. Section 3 challenges stakeholders to think beyond obesity, broadening the lens to metabolic health for all. Decision makers face a choice between path 1 (which focuses on treating obesity without addressing root causes) and path 2 (which focuses on a holistic approach to metabolic health, including prevention and treatment).

Enabling path 2 will require changes across industries that include food, environmental, and social systems. Achieving it demands investment and innovation in five key areas: advancing metabolic health science, improving transparency through better measurement, developing supportive technologies, aligning economic incentives to make metabolic health investable, and empowering communities equitably.

The McKinsey Health Institute invites leaders to consider whether the bold, collective effort of path 2 is worth the investment and risk to achieve a healthier, more equitable future for all.